With the January window now open, David Amoyal sorts through the speculation and rates how likely the rumoured moves are to take place.
Eden Hazard to Real Madrid: Five percent in January, 45 percent in summer
Hazard is a long-time target for Zinedine Zidane and, with Real Madrid’s front line stuttering, it’s no surprise to see rumors gaining momentum. Hazard’s father Thierry added fuel to the fire by telling Belgian paper Le Soir that his son has turned down a contract extension from Chelsea to keep his options open but, considering that his current deal doesn’t expire until 2020, it remains to be seen if the statement was an attempt to negotiate better terms down the road, as opposed to a veiled transfer request.
Giorgio Chiellini to Chelsea: Five percent
After Leonardo Bonucci’s departure to Milan, could another member of Juventus’ BBC be on his way out? Chiellini has been linked to Chelsea mainly because of his connection with former club and international manager Antonio Conte but, while it’s true that he has an expiring contract, everything points to him extending his deal with the Serie A champions, a development Chiellini himself confirmed in a recent interview.
Arturo Vidal to Chelsea: 15 percent in January, 35 percent in summer
Antonio Conte has stated publicly how much he respects Vidal, who he managed for two seasons at Juventus. A move will almost certainly have to wait until summer but Vidal has previously flirted with the possibility of leaving Bayern: Last July he approved a transfer to Inter that was never completed because of the Italian club’s Financial Fair Play restrictions. Bayern do not appear willing to agree to a loan deal with forced option to buy and that should give Chelsea a leg up over Inter, though it remains to be seen if there will be other suitors.
Leon Goretzka to Bayern Munich: 80 percent
Vidal’s future could be affected by Bayern’s pursuit of Goretzka in what is the latest edition of a film we’ve seen before: A talented German player turns down offers from abroad to join the Bundesliga’s biggest club. Barcelona, Real Madrid and Premier League clubs expressed interest, while his current club Schalke offered Goretzka an extension featuring wages well above their current standards, he has decided to join Bayern next summer when his current contract expires.
Paulo Dybala to Man United: Five percent in January, 30 percent in summer
The Argentine international is back in Juventus’ starting line-up but transfer rumors continue, with the most recent linking him to Man United. The Old Trafford club are reportedly willing to bid around €80 million in January, a fee considerably lower than the market dictates for a player of his caliber and age. United have hired former Juventus scout Javier Ribalta and Dybala is close to ex-teammate Paul Pogba, but those factors won’t be enough to sway Juve this month, even if the bid is increased.
Jorginho to Man United: Five percent in January, 35 percent in summer
Napoli have made substantial financial sacrifices to keep their best players as they pursue a first Serie A title since 1990 and so it’s unlikely they would sell a key man in Maurizio Sarri’s system, such as Jorginho, this month. The move could be revisited in the summer; the 26-year-old Brazil-born Italian international would bring attributes similar to Michael Carrick and Napoli also have a potential replacement in Amadou Diawara waiting in the wings.
Henrikh Mkhitaryan to Borussia Dortmund: 20 percent
The Armenian international’s underwhelming performances keep him in the transfer news headlines. While there’s still talk of a swap with Inter involving Joao Mario, there has also been speculation that Mkhitaryan could follow Shinji Kagawa’s path by returning to his former club from Old Trafford. But that possibility was dismissed by Borussia Dortmund CEO Hans-Joachim Watzke because of financial reasons, meaning the only way around this would be Man United loaning Mkhitaryan back to a team where he’s comfortable in order to reestablish his value.
Mario Mandzukic to Hebei Fortune: Five percent
Though Juventus acquired expensive offensive weapons Federico Bernardeschi and Douglas Costa last summer, Mandzukic remains a key player for Max Allegri. The versatile Croatian international has received rich offers from Hebei Fortune but, at this stage of his career, is still too competitive to swap Europe for China. It also doesn’t hurt that he received a raise with the contract extension he signed in 2017.
Kwadwo Asamoah to Galatasaray: 25 percent
Had Juventus convinced Atalanta to agree on an early termination of Leonardo Spinazzola’s loan, Asamoah would have moved to Turkey last summer. Since then, the Ghanaian international has reestablished himself for the Serie A champions and started key games ahead of Alex Sandro. So it’s unlikely he’ll leave Turin before the season ends despite having an expiring contract; in fact there is some momentum for him signing a new deal as a result of recent performances.
Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa to Inter: 25 percent
The nerazzurri are looking for more centre-back depth behind Miranda and Milan Skriniar. Yanga-Mbiwa has only featured three times in all competitions this season for Lyon but is well-known to Inter executive director Walter Sabatini, who brought the French international defender to Roma in 2018, where he was a valuable option for manager Rudi Garcia. A deal could be reached with Lyon on the basis of a loan with forced option to buy for around €5 million.
David covers transfer news for ESPN FC and works for Gianluca Di Marzio’s website. Twitter: @DavidAmoyal.